If gas were more expensive in China and India, would it be cheaper in the United States?
Dozens of countries in the Middle East and Asia have subsidies and controls that keep gas prices low for consumers. Many think that the government tinkering artificially fuels demand, imposing higher prices elsewhere in the world.
Let the price rise in those countries, the thinking goes, demand will fall, and global prices will come down too.
But in recent weeks, China, India, Indonesia, and Iran - countries where the government sets the price of gas - all have raised prices.
And now analysts disagree on what the impact will be. Some say that gas consumption - and worldwide oil prices - could actually go up.
"Their lifestyle has changed so much for the better, it's not going to impact them that much if gas prices go up 20%," said Nauman Barakat, an energy trader at Macquarie Futures, the trading arm of Macquarie investment bank. "They are willing to pay more so they don't have to wait in line."
Others agree.
"Actual consumption is unlikely to be affected seriously," analysts at Wood Mackenzie, and energy consultancy, wrote in a research note. "As long as China's overall economy remains strong, significant growth in vehicle ownership will more than offset the negative effects of this price rise."
One result is that higher gas prices could give refiners an incentive to make more gasoline and eliminate the shortages that have plagued China and other fast-growing countries.
